LILA RAJIVA: The Mind-Body Politic
Individuals Not Ideologies
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Archive for November, 2007
Ron Paul Rivals: Mike Huckabee wants a planet in every pot…
Jesus was too smart to run for politics– that was Mike Huckabee’s great line during the Wednesday night debate.
Too bad politicians aren’t smart enough to quit playing Jesus…
I’m listening to Chris Matthews and Huckabee this evening around 5, on MSNBC, mangling theology.
Matthews at least has an excuse. What’s Huckabee’s? He used to be an evangelical pastor.
Was Jesus all-sweetness and light and forgiveness?
Huckabee kept quoting the line “In as much as you do this unto the least of my brethren, you do it unto me.”
No quarrel with that. But is a government program the proper definition of”doing unto the least”?
Who is the least? Is poverty the definition of being least?
Remember, this is the Jesus who also said this:
“For verily I say unto you, Till heaven and earth pass, one jot or one tittle shall in no wise pass from the law, till all be fulfilled.”
The law Jesus refers to here is the law of the old testament, which is based on justice and the concept of “deserving.”
This is in no way different from similar notions in the major religions, like the Hindu ideal of alms-giving, which is required to be directed toward the deserving if it is to be called dharmic (i.e., lawful, dutiful).
Now, in monetary terms, it’s true that what welfare expends is a mere drop next to the oceans that go to subsidize defense contractors, the space program, and Wall Street.
But the smallness of an error in physical terms doesn’t change its magnitude in terms of meaning.
We see the gospel through the eyes of socialism and then wonder at the results we get. Oddly, the same people who are dismayed by references to Biblical teaching when the subject is gender or reproductive rights are just fine with references to Jesus when the subject is taxes and welfare.
In other words, the gospel is used as nothing more than an imprimatur on whatever it is any constituency wishes for itself.
This was transparently clear from the quality of questions asked last night. Personally, I wouldn’t have entertained that level of argument in an undergraduate seminar, let alone a presidential debate.
But, none of the questioners themselves (or the moderators who allowed them) seemed to care that their questioning betrayed an attitude toward citizenship that was grasping, venal and self-centered in the extreme.
What’s in it for me was the sum of their inquiries. And with a couple of honorable exceptions, to a man, the Republicans were only too willing to be — or seem to be — all things to all people.
A chicken in every pot, and if we’re to believe Huckabee, a man on every planet. Fortunately, Duncan Hunter brought him back into orbit.
Ron Paul, like Hunter, seemed to be the only one aware that the only space we should be thinking about now is the big hollow space at the center of the US economy.
A lot of puffed up goo on the outside and nothing inside.
Like a dough-nut. Or more accurately, a no-more- dough-nut.
Charles Krauthammer on FOX News at 6 was clearly displaying an anti-Southern animus when he found nothing appealing about Huckabee. He would have been right on target if he’d found nothing conservative about the witty governor.
Ron Paul or the Banks?
“A piece of legislation passed by Congress in 2006, the Pension Protection Act, became a bonanza for the mutual fund industry. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) and mutual fund giant Fidelity successfully lobbied for automatic enrollment with defined contribution retirement plans such as 401 (k) and 403 (b) plans. The act virtually guaranteed the mutual fund business additional trillions of dollars in assets and billions in fees….”
Not only do the bankers and the financial industry have their greedy paws deep in your pension, they’re working day and night to make themselves even more unaccountable than they already are:
“With the stench of Enron fading away, Wall Street and corporate America are looking for less regulation once again and looking to regulate Sarbanes-Oxley. Some committee members read like an “in crowd” of Wall Street and its suppliers - Kenneth Griffn, CEO of Citadel Investment Group, one of the larger hedge funds in America, made over $210 million in 2005. Samuel Piazza, Global CEO of Price Waterhouse Coopers; Robert Glauber, Harvard Law Sschool porfoessor and former chairman and CEO of the NASD; Cathy Kinney, President and COO of the NYSE; William Tarrett, CEO of Deloitte; Robert Pozen of Massachussetts Financial Services; James Rothenberg, Chairman Capital Research and Management; and Thomas Russo, Chief Legal Office of Lehman Brothers…”
Barry Dyke in “The Pirates of Manhattan,” PP. 26 and 61.
Who among the candidates is talking about the disease itself and not the symptoms? Only Ron Paul.
Here he calls for the government to “Bring back honest money”at Lew Rockwell.
“The advantages given banks and other financial institutions by our fiat monetary system, which is built on a foundation of legal tender laws, allow them to realize revenues that would not be available to these institutions in a free market. This represents legalized plunder of ordinary people. Legal tender laws thus enable the redistribution of wealth from those who produce it, mostly ordinary working people, to those who create and move around our irredeemable paper.”
Unending capacity to create money allied to lack of unaccountability to anyone - is that a definition of absolute power? And we know what comes of that:“The issue which has swept down through the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks….all power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
Lord Acton, 1887.
Looking up to crack-pot realists
“…the crackpot realists are frauds. We ordinary people, the great multitude on the bottom rungs of the power ladder, need to understand more clearly that when we look up at the self-anointed “deciders” who have the cosmic effrontery to presume themselves fit to rule us, we are looking up at fools.” ~ Robert Higgs.
Ron Paul Revolution: Ron debates Democrats on You-Tube
Yep, Democrats. Except for Paul, Hunter and Tancredo, there wasn’t anyone in last night’s debate who couldn’t have changed their rhetoric and tone of voice a bit and been palmed off as a Democrat. Or maybe, to be fair to the genuine left, as Demopub… or Republicrat…
“McCain said Paul is promoting isolationism in calling for the United States to disengage from the war. “We allowed (Adolf) Hitler to come to power with that attitude of isolation,” he said.
Paul objected, saying McCain had confused his support for nonintervention with isolationism.
“I want to trade with people, talk with people, travel,” Paul replied. “But I don’t want to send troops overseas using force to tell them how to live.” Later he made clear he would not run as an independent, despite requests from many of his supporters….”
More at the Washington Post.
Dear Senator McCain, your uncompromising stance on torture is admirable. So was your Vietnam war service. But while you seem to be quite clear about what the Constitution says about asphyxiating our fellow man in excruciating stages, you seem less clear about carpet bombing him. I fail to follow the logic. Pouring too much H2O down the wrong orifice of suspected terrorists upsets you deeply (and it should — they are still held in our prisons and there are other ways to get them to talk) but leveling cities filled with innocent civilians, from babies to grandmothers and cripples, because some bearded guy somewhere else went on a criminal rampage — now that’s just fine and dandy.
I am being facetious but that’s what the logic of this foreign policy amounts to.
Paul’s answer was perfect. Because we don’t want to bomb people into “freedom” (our version) doesn’t mean we want to be “isolationist.”
Here’s another of those slogans “Mobs” talks about.
Is everything always this black and white, this simplistic?
Is the alternative to bombing people raising the draw- bridge, holing up inside, and contemplating our navels? Isn’t there such a thing as peaceful, unmanaged trade? Isn’t the other name for that the free market? And isn’t that what conservatism is supposed to defend?
Not the military-industrial-financial much-too complex?
Update:
Now we find that the debate was infiltrated by a covey of Democrat supporters posing as random questioners, including the gay military officer who was almost disruptive…
More evidence of the arrogance and corruption of the MSM and their pals on You Tube.
Now figure out where else those pals are - on google, on amazon, and everywhere else where opinions are voiced.
Mind Body: Feelings….nothing more than feelings..
Nov. 27, 2007 — Amputees given prosthetic limbs could soon “feel” with their new hands or feet, after a team of scientists successfully rerouted two patients’ key nerves.
Scientists at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago and Northwestern University announced late Monday they had rerouted through their chests the nerves of two patients that had transferred sensation from the hand to the brain.
After several months during which the nerves re-established themselves in the chest muscles, physical pressure, heat and cold, and electrical stimulus were applied to the areas of the nerves and the patients said they could feel the effect.
More at Discovery News.
Comment: (What has any of this to do with politics and the economy? More later today…)
Drinking from a poisoned well: Bernanke and Dumbledore…
“At some point, all the losses—both for borrowers and lenders—are going to be ‘socialised,’ i.e. foisted off on American taxpayers. We’re just not sure what the mechanism is going to be. For some reason it brings to mind a scene in the Harry Potter books where Dumbledore is forced to drink a well-full of poison in order to reach a treasured item at the bottom. The poison nearly kills him. But someone had to do it. Ben Bernanke’s beard is shorter than Dumbledore’s…but he sure could use some magic right now…”
by Dan Denning, editor of Strategic Investments, and author of the idea-packed best-seller, The Bull Hunter, in the Daily Reckoning, Australia.
Lord Acton on ethics and liberty
“Obscure ethics imply imperfect liberty. For liberty comes not with any ethical system, but with a very developed one.…sanctifying freedom…teaching men to treasure the liberties of others as their own, and to defend them for the love of justice and charity more than as a claim of right, has been the soul of what is great and good in the progress of the last two hundred years.”
Colonies: Romance versus reality….
The recent PBS documentary “Pocahontas Revealed” - on TV tonight - rewrites the romantic Disney version, as this interview with historian David Silverman of George Washington University shows.
“In Disney’s recent version of the Pocahontas story, as in countless iterations before it, John Smith appears as a dashing romantic hero, smitten by the Indian “princess.” Their relationship symbolizes the bridging of two cultures, and more particularly, shows how Indians could enlighten Europeans to the wisdom of the natural world. It’s a fantasy that appeals to Americans today in part, perhaps, because it obscures an ugly truth: the relationship between Smith and Pocahontas, and more broadly between the Jamestown colonists and Pocahontas’s people, was one of betrayal and dashed hopes, as this interview with historian David Silverman of George Washington University makes clear.
Q: Why did John Smith and his English compatriots journey to Chesapeake Bay in 1607?
David Silverman: The first Jamestown colonists were fundamentally part of a business venture, a venture designed to produce wealth for its investors. What form that wealth would take they weren’t sure. The Spanish example in South America and Central America taught the English that around the next corner, in the American interior, might be a great Indian empire rich in gold and silver. But the colonists also had more modest goals: perhaps they might find iron or copper, or they could grow crops like citrus fruits. They also wanted to find a waterway that would give them an easy passage to Asia and all of its riches in the form of porcelain, silks, and spices.
Q: When the colonists first landed, what was foremost on their minds, finding riches or finding a way to sustain themselves?
Silverman: The main directive they had was to find wealth. Now, how to do that while also sustaining the colony was the great question. They expected to raise some amount of food, but they didn’t expect this colony to be entirely self-sufficient, not in its first years. The Spanish model and the English example of Roanoke in the 1580s, even though that colony failed, taught that Europeans might depend upon native people for sustenance. And indeed, that’s the strategy they intended to follow.
Q: How much did they know about the Powhatan people before they arrived?
Silverman: Europeans had been exploring the North American Atlantic coast for the better part of a century before the founding of Jamestown. So the English had information about native people on the coast: about how their polities were organized, about their economies, about what they would trade for European goods. What they didn’t know was what Indians were like in the interior. Was there [something like] an Inca kingdom in the interior? They desperately wanted to know that.
Q: What were the Indians’ preconceptions about the English?
Silverman: The Indians knew two big things through their previous experience with Europeans. The first was, these people were potentially very dangerous, very treacherous. They were armed to the teeth. They could turn on native people in the blink of an eye and for reasons that the natives couldn’t fathom.
But secondly, these English possessed goods that the natives craved. Now, some of these goods were things that we might consider bobbles and beads, worthless trinkets, ribbons, and the like. But there were other items, too, that could vastly improve their quality of life: metal cutting tools, axes and swords, awls and scissors, metal needles (which were a radical improvement over the bone needles or stone needles that native peoples used), brightly colored cloth, metal kettles that native women could place directly over the fire—quite unlike their own clay or wooden pots. And so even though they knew the English were dangerous, the Indians were drawn to them.
[Editor's Note: The Indian people the Jamestown colonists encountered were known by the same name as their chief, Powhatan.]
Q: According to John Smith’s account of the famous event—when Pocahontas allegedly rescued him from execution—her father, Powhatan, let Smith live but also expected something in exchange. What was it?
Silverman: John Smith thought, and I believe he was right, that Powhatan spared his life because Smith was more valuable to him alive than dead. Powhatan wanted Smith to broker trade relations between the English and the Powhatan people.
Q: And was Pocahontas a part of this decision?
Silverman: If John Smith’s account, written in the 1620s, can be believed, Pocahontas was at the center of her father’s decision to spare his life and then to set him up as a cultural broker, as a trade broker between the Indian and English communities.
Q: Several historians now see what took place between Powhatan and Smith in terms of an adoption. What would Powhatan’s perception of this adoption have been?
Silverman: We know that Powhatan called Smith “son” after freeing him from captivity at Werowocomoco. Well, what would a son’s responsibilities have been to his father? First and foremost, to provide reciprocal hospitality, meaning that Indian visitors to Jamestown, just like English visitors to the Indian communities, would receive food, lodging, and good treatment. It meant that these visitors would leave their weapons outside the village boundaries. The Indians would say that kin don’t need to guard one another against kin.
Secondly, family members provide for one another’s needs. How do you do that? Through trade would have been the Indian answer. The Indians would provide the English with food and military protection, and the English would provide the Indians with what they needed: copper, bells, beads, cloth. And over and over and over again, the Indians asked for weapons.
Q: How did Smith fare as a son?
Silverman: Initially, Smith fulfilled Powhatan’s expectations in terms of brokering trade. But he fell short of Powhatan’s expectations as a son in several respects. First, Powhatan essentially ordered Smith to move Jamestown to a new site within Powhatan’s dominions, where the English could be kept under closer watch. Smith refused to do this. Powhatan also expected Smith’s community to be subordinate to his, to be subject to his rule, and probably to pay him tribute. They did not. Smith was willing to set up a relationship of rough equality while Jamestown got its footing, but Smith’s plan was for the English to seize the superior position as soon as they could.
And thirdly—and I’m basing this opinion on inference, on what we know about other native peoples—Powhatan might have expected intermarriage. Marriage between the groups, and the production of mixed children, would give them a mutual interest in keeping the peace and ensuring prosperity. If the Powhatan Indians did indeed expect large-scale intermarriage between peoples or even just between the elites of both communities, they were sorely disappointed.
Q: What happens to John Smith after he is released and returns to Jamestown?
Silverman: John Smith returns from his captivity in Werowocomoco. He has a large native escort. He has set up relations between Jamestown and the Powhatan chief. He has set up the basis for trade relations. These are remarkable accomplishments. So what does he receive for his efforts? He’s clapped in jail. Why? For his mismanagement of the venture that got him captured in the first place. Moreover, the leaders of Jamestown suspect he is trying to set himself up as the supreme leader through his alliance with the Powhatans.
Q: So he came back with a threatening power?
Silverman: The English leadership deeply feared that John Smith would try to set himself up as the dictator of Jamestown by manipulating Indian military strength.
Q: But after a short time, Smith’s let out. And then comes what has been described as a “golden interlude” of peace. Is that right?
Silverman: The period of several months after Smith’s return to Jamestown has often been called a golden age in English-Indian relations. I think the term is vastly overstated, but there was a steady if uneasy peace. Trade was taking place during this time. Indians were coming and going from Jamestown on a fairly routine basis. And one of those Indian visitors was Pocahontas herself. She would show up at Jamestown, sometimes as part of official Indian delegations, sometimes just to visit, perhaps to visit John Smith.
Q: So here’s the inevitable question: What was the nature of their relationship?
Silverman: Well, we do know that there was a relationship between John Smith and Pocahontas. We know that she was present at Jamestown at least several times in the months after John Smith’s return from Powhatan captivity. She shows up in a Powhatan word list, a list of phrases that Smith compiled. But what was the nature of their relationship? Was it romantic? Unlikely, but we can’t be sure. Some colonists suspected that it might be romantic. Was it political? Absolutely. We know that John Smith wanted to take the lead in English relations with the Indians, and Pocahontas was one of his allies, it would appear, in that effort. Did Pocahontas view John Smith as a relative? Perhaps. Her father called John Smith “son,” and so the implication is that he was like her brother.
We also know that Pocahontas was a special kind of person. She did not abide by the normal rules set up for a teenage Indian girl during this period. Here she is, in a potentially hostile environment, in a fort of foreigners populated almost exclusively by men in their late teens and early twenties, armed to the teeth, with a history of engaging in hostilities with native people. Yet there she is, with or maybe even without her father’s permission and knowledge. We know that she accompanied and perhaps even headed up Indian delegations to the English to bring them food and eventually to free Indian captives being held at Jamestown fort. And she was her father’s favorite. She was a special person: bold, vivacious, obviously very, very smart, and savvy in intercultural relations.
Q: Why did the Indians stop trading food to the English?
Silverman: There are two points of stress. First, the English had traded so much copper to the Indians that the Indians were now unwilling to trade plentiful amounts of food for small bits of copper, like they once did. The second point of stress was that the English arrived in Virginia in the midst of a serious, serious drought unlike any that had been seen by generations of Indians. The Indians simply didn’t have enough of a surplus of corn, beans, and squash to trade to the English and feed themselves at the same time.
Now, the Indians were willing to trade their corn for one item: over and over and over again they demanded weapons—swords and firearms—something John Smith in particular and the English generally were unwilling to provide.
Q: What is Smith’s response to the food supply drying up?
Silverman: Smith’s primary response is to seize that food, to force the natives to trade at gunpoint, and if the natives won’t trade, to attack native villages and simply take what he and the English want. So we find armed English military expeditions to native communities, which are resulting in bloodshed and the rather ironic development of the English burning down cornfields after they’ve taken all the food they can carry away.
Q: Were they burning down the villages too?
Silverman: Sometimes. What we have, in essence, are the beginning stages of a war.
Q: But in the midst of this warfare, Smith records that Pocahontas actually acts to save his life, is that right?
Silverman: Yes. Among the strong-armed efforts to force the Indians to trade food was an English expedition to Werowocomoco. The Indians, as usual, insisted the English leave their weapons at the edge of the village, which the English were unwilling to do. In the midst of negotiations, all of a sudden Chief Powhatan disappeared. The English were fairly certain they were about to come under attack. And indeed, Pocahontas herself, according to John Smith, came and gave him a warning that he and his men were in peril. And so the English beat a hasty retreat.
Q: But why would she do that?
Silverman: We simply can’t know Pocahontas’s intent. Now, it might very well be that she empathized with the English, that she had feelings toward Smith and didn’t want to see him die. It also might be that this was an act of political theater in which Powhatan sent Pocahontas to give what amounted to a warning to the English, to say, “If I wanted to cut you off I could. Reform your behavior. Act the way I expect you to act.” Such warnings are consistent with Indian ways of diplomacy and war. We have contradictory signals; we can’t sort them out through the meager historical record.
Q: Then what horrible thing happens to Smith?Silverman: Well, essentially a keg of gunpowder lying between his legs explodes.
Q: Talk about excruciating pain.
Silverman: Yes, excruciating pain, absolutely.
Q: And was it an accident?
Silverman: Contemporaries said that this explosion was an accident, and yet there are conspicuous hints that suggest it was deliberate, that someone within the English community was trying to kill or to hurt Smith and remove him from power. We do know that the rivalry between John Smith and other English elites at Jamestown was at an absolute pitch during this time. Smith, always bold, was being even more aggressive at trying to dictate English-Indian policy. And suddenly, this explosion occurs, and Smith’s forced to return home.
Q: So it’s safe to say that some people were happy to see him go.
Silverman: More than a few Englishmen were happy to see John Smith go. They didn’t like his overbearing manner, his rising above his class station in life. Now he was gone, and yet the Indians and the English needed him to serve as an ambassador between their communities more than ever.
Q: What is Pocahontas told?
Silverman: Pocahontas is not told that John Smith is injured and is going back to England to recover; she is told that Smith is dead.
Q: What then happens to the colonists?
Silverman: The English enter a severe period of starvation in which they lose most of their numbers. Almost everyone at Jamestown is sick. They’re malnourished. They’re coming down with a variety of diseases, including dysentery and salt poisoning. And they’re psychologically depressed. They’re under intermittent siege by native people whom they deeply, deeply fear. They feel isolated. They feel at risk. And they turn inward, almost collapsing upon themselves, and they refuse to do the basic functions that people need to perform in order to survive.
Q: But the colony does survive. Some years pass. Pocahontas is captured. Can you jump us ahead to that point?
Silverman: In April of 1613, the English capture Pocahontas and hold her as a bargaining chip in their diplomacy with Powhatan, offering to return her in exchange for peace. Over and over again the Powhatan chief rebuffs them. He might have been thinking that Pocahontas could learn their ways, learn their language, cultivate their leaders, and try to broker a truce between the peoples. If that was his strategy, it was a very, very savvy one, because that’s exactly how things played out.
During her captivity at Jamestown, Pocahontas falls in love with an English settler, John Rolfe. Was this coincidence or was it strategy? It’s hard to know. What we do know is that the marriage between Pocahontas and John Rolfe is a key step in establishing an uneasy truce between the Powhatan and English peoples in early Virginia.
Q: A few years later, Pocahontas travels with Rolfe to England. What does she find out about John Smith?
Silverman: Among the shocks that Pocahontas receives while visiting England in 1616 is that John Smith, whom she had been told was dead, is indeed alive and well. It crushed her to learn this news. It crushed her not only that the English had been lying to her all along but that John Smith, a man with whom she had a personal relationship of some sort or another, had done absolutely nothing to contact her, to contact her people, to contact her father, who called Smith his son.
Q: Can you imagine how she would have felt when she finally met Smith?
Silverman: However Pocahontas was feeling when she finally saw John Smith—whatever heartache she was feeling, whatever fury she was feeling—she behaved with dignity. She reminds him that her father called Smith “son.” And the implication is, “We were supposed to be like family. We were responsible for one another.” The implication is, “Do you know what has been happening back in Virginia to my people by your people since you left?” The implication is that Smith could have made a difference and did not.
Q: Why is the story of Smith and Pocahontas of profound importance to us, to American history?
Silverman: The Pocahontas story, the Pocahontas myth, has traditionally been told to make Americans feel better about the evils of colonization. Pocahontas seemed to acquiesce to English colonization, to willingly adopt Christianity and “civility.” But I think the larger lesson of Pocahontas’s life and her experience with Smith and the English is that there was a potential in the early relationships between Indians and colonists to set up something mutual. To set up, as the Indians would have it, a relationship of kin in which the two peoples help to meet each other’s needs and live as a single people.
Those expectations were sorely dashed. They were sorely dashed in the mind of Pocahontas, sorely dashed for the Powhatans, and sorely dashed for Indian peoples across the continent over the course of three centuries of colonization by European powers in the United States. That’s the basic lesson of the Pocahontas story and the story of early Jamestown.”
Media-trix: FOX notes Paul supporters include brothel owner…
“RENO, Nevada — Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul, an underdog Texas congressman with a libertarian streak, has picked up an endorsement from a Nevada brothel owner.
Dennis Hof, owner of the Moonlite BunnyRanch near Carson City, says he was so impressed after hearing Paul at a campaign stop in Reno last week that he decided to raise money for him.”
More at FOX.
Trust the MSM to pay attention to Paul only in ways that (they hope) will diminish him with mainstream voters.
Won’t work, especially since the founder of Dr. Paul’s religion was a pretty libertarian guy too and counted a few women of uncertain repute in his following too….(I wrote Magdalene first, but I recall that’s not so).
You’ll notice that Paul has gone from “dark horse” to underdog.” The move up the mammalian kingdom signals that pretty soon Ron’s going to be duking it out in the ring with the front runners.
If he only had a heart: Cheney’s battery runs down…
FOX is reporting that Cheney’s been diagnosed with a heart condition called atrial fibrillation that may require electroshock treatment shortly.
This isn’t major, but the Veeps’ on blood thinners, and he’s had “four heart attacks, quadruple bypass surgery, two artery-clearing angioplasties and an operation to implant a defibrillator six years ago. In July he had surgery to replace the defibrillator…..
“The type of defibrillator Cheney has is used to prevent sudden death from a very different type of irregular heartbeat that starts in the bottom of the heart. The atrial fibrillation, in contrast, requires a different type of treatment.
In 2005, Cheney had six hours of surgery on his legs to repair a kind of aneurysm, a ballooning weak spot in an artery that can burst if left untreated. In March, doctors discovered that he had a deep venous thrombosis in his left lower leg.”
Dr. Rubin does the rounds: Asian “flu” (then) US “chill” (now)
Chalmers Johnson described the result in blunt terms: “The funds easily raped Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea, then turned the shivering survivors over to the IMF, not to help the victims, but to insure that no Western bank was stuck with non-performing loans in the devastated countries.” A European Asia expert, Prof. Kristen Nordhaug, summed up the Clinton Administration policy towards East Asia in 1997. Clinton had developed a major economic strategy, using the new National Economic Council, initially headed by Robert Rubin, a Wall Street investment banker. East Asian emerging markets were targeted for an offensive. “The Administration actively supported multilateral agencies such as the IMF…to promote international financial liberalization,” Nordhaug noted. “As…the strategy of targeting East Asian markets (was) in place, the U.S. Administration was in a strong position to take advantage of the financial crisis to promote liberalization of trade, finance and institutional reforms through the IMF.”
The impact of the Asia crisis on the dollar was notable. The Bank for International Settlements General Manager, Andrew Crockett, noted that while the East Asian countries had run a combined current account deficit of $33 billion in 1996, as speculative hot money flowed in, “1998-1999, the current account swung to a surplus of $87 billion.” By 2002 it peaked $200 billion. Most of that surplus returned to the U.S. in the form of Asian central bank purchases of U.S. Treasury debt, in effect, financing Washington policies. Japan’s Finance Ministry had made a futile effort to contain the Asia crisis by proposing a $30 billion Asian Monetary Fund. Washington made clear it was not pleased. The idea was quickly dropped. Asia was to become yet another province of the dollar realm through the IMF. Treasury Secretary Rubin euphemistically termed it America’s “strong dollar policy.”
Angels promoting “Mobs”
Mob Mentality: Are Entrepreneurs Immune? 
By William Bonner and Lila Rajiva
Remember explaining to your mother why you’d taken some (ill-advised) action because all your friends were doing it? And remember her stock response? If all of your friends jumped off a bridge, would you do it, too? she would ask, hands on hips and voice rapidly escalating to tones of incredulity. Unfortunately for you and your mother—the answer probably would have been yes. What’s more, it probably would still be. It seems we humans never outgrow the powerful urge to go along with the crowd, even when the crowd’s decision will result in financial loss, humiliation, physical injury, or in extreme cases, death.
Just think about this common scene on the evening news. A sports team has just won a big game, and to celebrate it a group of otherwise sane and responsible people have collectively determined that it’s a good idea to set cars ablaze, clamber up telephone poles and street lamps, and jump over bonfires. Why? Because they’re no longer thinking as individuals but have given in to the “mob instinct”—which rarely results in anything but catastrophe.
That mob mentality can have devastating effects on human behavior. It’s part of the reason why we blindly follow leaders who are clearly wrong, succumb to witch hunts stirred up by pundits, and buy ridiculously overpriced stocks just at the moment when we should be selling them. The secret to understanding politics, markets, wars, fads, and manias is understanding the problem that arises when human beings make decisions as part of a big group even though they are wired to operate best in small groups. This kind of “public thinking” is a setup for disaster.
Read on to learn about the absurd and sometimes frightening ways in which the herd instinct drives us as individuals, as a nation, and as world citizens… “
More at The Angel Journal (an outlet for angel investors)
National Post (Canada) review of “Mobs”
A strong print review by Araminta Wordsworth from The National Post.
MOBS, MESSIAHS AND MARKETS: SURVIVING THE PUBLIC SPECTACLE IN FINANCE AND POLITICS
William Bonner and Lila Rajiva, John Wiley 424 pages, $33.99
It has been more than 25 years since gold hit the kind of highs we have been seeing recently and widows and orphans lined up round the block to get their hands on an ingot. Now, the yellow metal is building for another run-up and gold bugs, who’ve been holding on for just such a day, are saying, “I told you so.”
But canny investors with money burning a hole in their pockets are looking elsewhere — to ethanol stocks, say, or farmland in Argentina. Or, if they insist on having a piece of this action, gold mining stocks, even though Mark Twain described a gold mine as “a hole in the ground owned by a liar.”
Yet gold will still find buyers at these prices, though logic and commonsense should quickly show the foolhardiness of the “investment.”
Why does this happen again and again, with those least able to bear the losses throwing away their money?
William Bonner and Lila Rajiva provide the answers in this exhilarating — if somewhat depressing — book. Although their insights will often make readers laugh out loud, they will also find themselves wriggling uncomfortably at the manifold idiocies of human behaviour.
The authors’ hope is that some of their advice will stick, enabling us to stand aside as the herd thunders by — and prosper.
Which is tough, as they admit humans are engineered to want to be part of a group. We are more comfortable when “everybody else” seems to be thinking along the same lines, whether it is investors stampeding into a sure-fire money earner or mobs of 17th-century New Englanders being convinced that harmless old ladies who lived by themselves were witches. Or Americans believing the world is being made safe against terror by invading Iraq.
As the Japanese proverb notes, “The nail that sticks up gets hammered down.”
Take real estate. In the past decade, as housing prices have risen like a cake baking in the oven, pushing many properties into the unreal category, buyers have been encouraged to purchase ever-larger and more expensive houses, taking out equally large mortgages. The belief is that you can always sell a house for more than you paid for it.
But as the subprime mess south of the border is showing in spades, this is just not true. Although Canadians have been protected to a large extent by tougher lending rules here — insistence on a down-payment in almost all cases, for example — we should not imagine we are insulated from any aftershocks.
It is clearly a global concern. For the first time in several years, house prices in England have stopped their meteoric rise. Many British house owners will be vulnerable to any fall in value as they have been able to borrow 100% of the purchase price. Canadian banks are also among those caught up in the disaster, thanks to their purchase of mortgage-backed securities, sliced and diced portfolios of mortgages often of doubtful quality. Massive write downs are already the order of the day south of the border.
As historians, the authors also provide some valuable alternatives to accepted accounts of past events. Among many examples is the first invasion of Kabul in 1842. This is usually portrayed in British history books as a valiant expedition that ended in unforeseen tragedy. In their hands it becomes a study in bungling ineptitude, with the tragedy being all too easily predictable.
Government types are also high on the Bonner/Rajiya list of betes noires. These range from the usual suspects, such as Hitler and Mao, to less obvious targets like the World Bank and Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman also attracts their ire for suggesting that U.S. gasoline consumption would be cut by giving the owners of hybrid vehicles free parking.
Read this book and laugh. But I guarantee it will also provide much food for thought.
Financial Follies - going from Euro-phoria to Euro-phobia
“The ECB may or may not intervene in the currency markets to cap the euro. But this is a red herring. Europe’s retort - if and when it comes - will be far more political, and far more dramatic. We are at one of History’s “inflexion points”.
One recalls the months leading up to the collapse of the Gold Standard in 1931. That was triggered first by Credit Anstalt in Austria and then by a British naval mutiny in Scotland.
Any bets on what will trigger the collapse of Bretton Woods II? I wager that it will be a decision by the Gulf states to break their dollar pegs, leading to a temporary surge of euro purchases. That will tip Mr Sarkozy over the edge.”
Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph discussing the possibility of currency controls in Europe.
Morgan Stanley: odds of global credit bust better than 1 in 2
“There’s a greater than 50 percent probability that the financial system “will come to a grinding halt” because of losses from mortgages.”
-Gregory Peters, Head of Credit Strategy, Morgan Stanley, 13 November 2007Housing Bubble Trouble: Ohio judge places another straw on top of subprime camel…
“A US Federal Judge, C.A. Boyko in Federal District Court in Cleveland Ohio ruled to dismiss a claim by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. DB’s US subsidiary was seeking to take possession of 14 homes from Cleveland residents living in them, in order to claim the assets.
Here comes the hair in the soup. The Judge asked DB to show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not. All DB attorneys could show was a document showing only an “intent to convey the rights in the mortgages.” They could not produce the actual mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta of not longer.
Again why could Deutsche Bank not show the 14 mortgages on the 14 homes? Because they live in the exotic new world of “global securitization”, where banks like DB or Citigroup buy tens of thousands of mortgages from small local lending banks, “bundle” them into Jumbo new securities which then are rated by Moody’s or Standard & Poors or Fitch, and sell them as bonds to pension funds or other banks or private investors who naively believed they were buying bonds rated AAA, the highest, and never realized that their “bundle” of say 1,000 different home mortgages, contained maybe 20% or 200 mortgages rated “sub-prime,” i.e. of dubious credit quality.
Indeed the profits being earned in the past seven years by the world’s largest financial players from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley to HSBC, Chase, and yes, Deutsche Bank, were so staggering, few bothered to open the risk models used by the professionals who bundled the mortgages. Certainly not the Big Three rating companies who had a criminal conflict of interest in giving top debt ratings. That changed abruptly last August and since then the major banks have issued one after another report of disastrous “sub-prime” losses.
A new unexpected factor
The Ohio ruling that dismissed DB’s claim to foreclose and take back the 14 homes for non-payment, is far more than bad luck for the bank of Josef Ackermann. It is an earth-shaking precedent for all banks holding what they had thought were collateral in form of real estate property.
How this? Because of the complex structure of asset-backed securities and the widely dispersed ownership of mortgage securities (not actual mortgages but the securities based on same) no one is yet able to identify who precisely holds the physical mortgage document. Oops! A tiny legal detail our Wall Street Rocket Scientist derivatives experts ignored when they were bundling and issuing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of CMOs in the past six or seven years. As of January 2007 some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was outstanding in the United States…….”
More by Bill Engdahl on the financial tsunami ahead.
Tibor Kalman on crashing planes and the media
“We live in a society and a culture and an economic model that tries to make everything look right…But by definition, when you make something no one hates, no one loves it. So I am interested in imperfections, quirkiness, insanity, unpredictability. That’s what we really pay attention to anyway. We don’t talk about planes flying; we talk about them crashing….”
- Tibor Kalman, influential New York designer/editor and radical activist
well known for his images of figures like the Pope and Queen Elizabeth II with a brown skin.
Comment:
Collage, the juxtaposition of contradictory images - they all disrupt our ease. They make us look a second time at our logic, our comfortable narratives..
I want to create a kind of cubism of ideological fragments — from the left, from the right, from the secular and the religious, from east, from west. Where will that lead? No idea….
Cass Sunstein on distributed knowledge and prediction markets
“Hayek’s claim is that in a system in which knowledge of relevant facts is dispersed among many people, prices act as an astonishingly concise and accurate coordinating and signaling device. They incorporate that dispersed knowledge and in a sense also publicize it, because the price itself operates as a signal to all.
Hence Hayek argues that it “is more than a metaphor to describe the price system as a kind of machinery for registering changes, or a system of telecommunications which enables individual produces to watch merely the movement of a few pointers.” Hayek describes this process as a “marvel,” and adds that he has chosen that word on purpose so as “to shock the reader out of the complacency with which we often take the working of the mechanism for granted.”
On the Internet, prediction markets are an obvious illustration of Hayek’s point. They can be found on many sites, and they tend to do exceedingly well, because they incorporate dispersed information so as to generate a price. That price often works as a probability, that is, the price of the “bets” accurately captures the probability that the event will occur. For elections, Oscar winners, and economic events, prediction markets have been uncannily accurate…”
Cass Sunstein on Hayek in TPM Cafe.
Comment:
Wiki, the blogosphere, pricing….they all reflect the value of the decentralization of knowledge and decision making. They all support political devolution to the states and local governments and the elimination of much of the (unconstitutional) mandate of federal government.
From violent revolutionary to non-violent visionary: Aurobindo in jail…
“…as it was the Almighty Power of God which had raised that cry, that hope, so it was the same Power which had sent down that silence. He who was in the shouting and the movement was also in the pause and the hush. He has sent it upon us, so that the nation might draw back for a moment and look into itself and know His will. I have not been disheartened by that silence because I had been made familiar with silence in my prison and because I knew it was in the pause and the hush that I had myself learned this lesson through the long year of my detention.”
“He turned the hearts of my jailers to me and they spoke to the Englishman in charge of the jail, “He is suffering in his confinement; let him at least walk outside his cell for half an hour in the morning and in the evening.” So it was arranged, and it was while I was walking that His strength again entered into me. I looked the jail that secluded me from men and it was no longer by its high walls that I was imprisoned; no, it was Vasudeva who surrounded me.
I walked under the branches of the tree in front of my cell but it was not the tree, I knew it was Vasudeva, it was Sri Krishna whom I saw standing there and holding over me his shade. I looked at the bars of my cell, the very grating that did duty for a door and again I saw Vasudeva. It was Narayana who was guarding and standing sentry over me….I looked at the prisoners in the jail, the thieves, the murderers, the swindlers, and as I looked at them I saw Vasudeva, it was Narayana whom I found in these darkened souls and misused bodies. Amongst these thieves and dacoits there were many who put me to shame by their sympathy, their kindness, the humanity triumphant over such adverse circumstances.
One I saw among them especially, who seemed to me a saint, a peasant of my nation who did not know how to read and write, an alleged dacoit sentenced to ten years’ rigorous imprisonment, one of those whom we look down upon in our Pharisaical pride of class as Chhotalok…(lower orders) Once more He spoke to me and said, “Behold the people among whom I have sent you to do a little of my work. This is the nature of the nation I am raising up and the reason why I raise them.”
When the case opened in the lower court and we were brought before the Magistrate I was followed by the same insight. He said to me, “When you were cast into jail, did not your heart fail and did you not cry out to me, where is Thy protection? Look now at the Magistrate, look now at the Prosecuting Counsel.”
I looked and it was not the Magistrate whom I saw, it was Vasudeva, it was Naryana who was sitting there on the bench….”
Business Wire runs “Mobs” promo….
I just found that Business Wire had run a piece earlier this month on the book, using our promotional material.
November 15, 2007 12:00 PM Eastern Time
DUBLIN, Ireland–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c74288) has announced the addition of “Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics” to their offering.
Ron Paul Revolution: The Greenspan we want - Jeff Greenspan, that is…
“Radio talk show host, Dale Williams, interviewed Jeff Greenspan, the Western Coordinator of the Ron Paul campaign. During the interview, Greenspan dispelled the accusations of racism in the Ron Paul camp. He spoke about his own Jewish heritage and stated that Dr. Paul’s campaign is comprised of people from a wide variety of ethnic backgrounds. …”
More at The National Expositor.
Business Pundit: thumbs up for “Mobs,” but with a warning label…
Rob May at the hugely popular business blog, Business Pundit, wrote this great review of “Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets” that I just came across:
“Where do I begin with a book that takes a shot at pretty much anybody and everybody, including the authors themselves? To say that this book is skeptical or contrarian is like saying Warren Buffett has money. This book could set the standard for skeptical writing. That said, it’s part of the reason I enjoyed the book so much.”
But in the end, however, he doesn’t really recommend it to everyone:
“Francis Scott wrote that “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” I do not think most people have this capacity, but if you do, I highly recommend this book. For everyone else, it will just be offensive.”
(sigh). Read the rest of the review here.
This is one of the nicest reviews we got. My other favorites include one by Daniel Ryan at the libertarian site, Enter Stage Right.
Here’s an excerpt:
“If you’re the alpha type, you’ll undergo something rarely experienced in this day and age, despite the number of Mencken imitators currently around: you’ll actually feel the same way that a good, worthy, successful U.S. burgher felt in the 1920s when reading one of Mencken’s works when it was hot off the presses. The two authors are that good at being intellectually detached from all parts of the popularity-and-leadership game.
Some may find it roundly offensive, but it would be tragic if the reader, through umbrage, expels him- or herself from the Bonner/Rajiva School for Creative Cynics. After reading this book, you will re-evaluate some of your more cherished ideas. Some will find grist for self-reflection in its material.”
And Dr. Jonathan Dolhenty of the popular philosophy site, Radical Academy also gave us a big thumbs up. Here’s a part:
“Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva is a fascinating work which considers how people think and behave, privately and collectively, and the effects these different modes have within the public sphere. I haven’t quite decided which specific literary genre this book falls into; maybe that is inconsequential anyway. There’s a lot of history, much economics and politics and, well, almost every other recognized social science comes into play….Fortunately for the casual reader, this book is not the least bit “dry” or dull, as all too many book dealing with this or similar topics seem to be. In fact, there are many times in this work where the authors relate or allude to something that is downright hilarious. Be that as it may, this is a serious look at an important phenomenon in the human condition.”
Then there was this review by Mark Lamendola, which smacked us for lurching into lala land at the end with our gold recommendation (well, it was right so far, wasn’t it?), but was still pretty favorable :
“Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets provides insights that run counter to the propaganda spewed by the mainstream media. Thought-provoking and myth-challenging, it will delight those who value liberty. People who believe the government is “here to help you” or that the tooth fairy really does leave coins under your pillow won’t like Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets. That’s their problem.
Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets looks at how and why people do stupid things en masse. Understanding how mass manipulation works can help you avoid trotting off the cliff in a herd of lemmings, so this stuff is good to know. One of the tools of mass manipulation is the really big lie. Quite adroitly, Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets looks at specific lies and gives them a sound thrashing.”
Read the rest at the Mind Connection
So, let’s see. That’s
1. An electrical engineer/systems designer/business prof and major blogger (Business Pundit)
2. A widely- published philosopher of the natural law tradition (Radical Academy)
3. A time management/business self-help expert who’s written 6000 articles (Mind Connection).
Systems analysis, philosophy, and business management.
That was roughly where we hoped to be. I think if we had eliminated the antiwar stuff and toned down most of the language, we might have been mentioned in more mainstream reviews in print newspapers. But since one of the main targets of the book is the mainstream news business, I guess that would be missing the point….
But underground fav isn’t too bad…..
Scott Fitzgerald on writers
“Writers aren’t exactly people…they’re a whole lot of people trying to be one person.”
F. Scott Fitzgerald.Bigger dollar crash predicted in 2008 - updated
RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) — A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.
“We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen,” Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a “Panic of 2008.”
“The bigger they are, the harder they’ll fall,” he said in an interview with New York’s Hudson Valley Business Journal.
Celente — who forecast the subprime mortgage financial crisis and the dollar’s decline a year ago and gold’s current rise in May — told the newspaper the subprime mortgage meltdown was just the first “small, high-risk segment of the market” to collapse.
But from Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist at Daily Forex, some caution:
“Even though the US dollar fell to a new record low against the Euro overnight, the Euro failed to hold onto those gains. The currency pair’s struggle to sustain its upside momentum over the past three trading days has everyone wondering whether this is the top. Unlike the US, there are fundamental reasons behind today’s intraday reversal. For the most part European economic data was weak. Manufacturing PMI accelerated but service sector PMI deteriorated and French consumer spending fell by the biggest amount in over a year. ECB President Trichet also said that he is opposed to brutal currency moves while Airbus is complaining loudly about the damage of a weaker dollar. It is important to point out that Trichet did not call the latest move in the Euro brutal, but simply indicated his discontent with volatility in the currency markets in general. The pressure is heating up for the central bank president to do something about the currency but his reluctance to do so reflects what must be very strong inflationary pressures.”
And Sebastian Malloy at the Washington Post references that futuristic digital currency of Ben Steil’s I blogged a while back.
Update: Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the dollar will stage a come back in 2008. This is likely to be so for the short or midterm — but its likely to be go back down after that….the fundamentals argue for more decline…
The Oxbow Incident: the law is more than words
“A man just naturally can’t take the law into his own hands and hang people without hurtin’ everybody in the world, ’cause then he’s just not breaking one law but all laws. Law is a lot more than words you put in a book, or judges or lawyers or sheriffs you hire to carry it out. It’s everything people ever have found out about justice and what’s right and wrong. It’s the very conscience of humanity. There can’t be any such thing as civilization unless people have a conscience, because if people touch God anywhere, where is it except through their conscience? And what is anybody’s conscience except a little piece of the conscience of all men that ever lived?”From the Oxbow Incident (1943).
The Oxbow Incident was based on a 1940 Western by Walter Van Tilburg Clark, and starred Henry Fonda and Anthony Quinn, among others. It tells the story of a posse that goes after suspected cattle rustlers in the Oxbow Valley in Nevada in 1885. The rustlers are also presumed to have killed a popular rancher. When the posse happens on three suspicious-looking men, it ignores its own qualms and the protests of the local judge and proceeds to hang them. On going back home, the vigilantes are overwhelmed with guilt to find the rancher alive.
A 75 minute classic that was one of Orson Welles’ favorites and the only Western he considered making, the film won an Academy Award in 1998 but performed poorly at the box-office. Although it was intended as a defense of war-time American values, audiences disliked the implicit connection it drew between Nazi mob rule and the Old West. It seemed to say that America might not be immune in the future to eruptions of cowboy justice and that even people who are mostly law-abiding in their daily lives can commit murder, while convincing themselves they’ve had a “reasonable accusation, fair trial, and just execution.”
Silence of the MSM: Ron P versus Ben B
Filed under Stories My Mother Never Told Me.
Ron Paul faces off with Ben Bernanke on the Federal Reserve fraud (yes, you didn’t read that much in the press, did you? How would you, when the same crew that owns the government owns the media).
“Paul countered that by putting more money on the market, Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are devaluing the dollar and robbing from Americans.“There’s a dollar crisis out there and people’s money is being stolen; people who have saved, they’re being robbed. I mean, if you have a devaluation of the dollar at 10 percent, people have been robbed at 10 percent. But how can you pursue this policy without addressing the subject that somebody’s losing their wealth because of a weaker dollar? And it’s going to lead to higher interest rates and a weaker economy.”
Bernanke argued that since Americans use dollars to buy their goods here in America, a devalued dollar will make imported goods more expensive.
Paul shot back, rounding out his five minutes of questions, “Yes, but not if you’re retired and elderly and you have CDs and their cost of living is going up no matter what your CPI says. Their cost of living is going up and they are hurting.”
It was an interesting exercise in theory, but Paul, even if he were to be elected president, probably would not have the votes in Congress to revamp the financial system, much less abolish the Fed.”
A reason perhaps why none of this made wire or newspaper accounts of the hearing, all of which focused on Bernanke’s contention that despite an intensifying slump in the housing market, slower than expected growth and higher inflation, he does not believe the country is headed for a recession and tried to divine where Bernanke’s testimony signaled another interest rate cut.”
Paul campaign predicts raising more than $12 million goal for Qtr 4
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Presidential candidate Ron Paul said he has raised more than $9 million in the past two months and he predicted his campaign will exceed its $12 million fourth-quarter goal.
“It looks like we can’t stay under it,” Paul, a long-shot candidate for the Republican nomination, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” scheduled to air today. Paul said organizers expect a Dec. 16 fundraising blitz to bring in more than the $4.2 million a similar event raised on Nov. 5, an “astounding” amount.
Dollar devaluation? Whom does it hurt?
Interesting post here about dollar devaluation in a blog discussion.
Unlike Cavuto on FOX, the blogger thinks the dollar won’t bounce in the near term.
“I am not so sure about the overvaluation of the dollar.
I live in Denmark, and our valuta the DKR is pegged to the Euro.I made a little survey for about 6 weeks comparing supermarket prices in Denmark and in the USA.
If you remove sales taxes and VAT, the real value of the dollar in a supermarket is about 56-60 eurocents. Today the exchange rate is about 68 eurocents to a dollar.If you look at IKEA which is both in Europe and the USA and make the same comparation, IKEA values 1 dollar to 52 eurocents.
I think the dollar is going through a “controlled” gliding devaluation, and I think the goal is 1 dollar to 60 eurocents.
The FED and the ECB has a common interest in the project.
The FED can in that way get rid of a good deal of the American foreign debt, and the ECB can help the Euro to be a new international reserve valuta. At the same time, the EU has only a small part of the dollar reserves, so their losses will be relatively small.
The real losers will be the countries in the far east, that have invested heavily in dollars.
That’s why the ECB keeps up the rates, while the FED lowers their rates.
By the way, the USA is not the largest economy in the world.
In 2006 the US GDP was 13.000 billion USD, and the GDP in the EU15(the “old” EU) 11.400 billion €.
With todays exchange rate that is 16.764 billion USD, or about 29% larger than the US GDP. Maybe that’s the reason for the shift in reserve valuta.With a foreign debt of 60% of GDP a large internal public and private debt and a negative private saving rate (-2% in 2006) the US economy is in a relatively bad shape, and on top of that is the sub-prime crisis.
So it is not likely, that the USD will revaluate in the short run.”
Econ-job: Airbus hit by dollar storm
Cavuto on FOX, this Saturday morning, had a couple of predictions for the coming months:
For the credit market: more rate cutting from the Fed
For the housing market: it’s the beginning of McMansions……to McNuggets.
What about the exchange rate? The dollar slalom’s put even Airbus in a tizzy:-
“The dollar has hit new record lows against the euro this week, something which Airbus says favours its US rival Boeing.
Earlier this month Airbus warned it may have to deepen its planned restructuring after steeper than expected third-quarter losses.
It said a net loss of 776m euros ($1.14 bn; £541m) - as against a loss of 189m euros in 2006 - was down to delays with its A400M military transport aircraft.
And it said full-year earnings would only “roughly break even”.”
But on Cavuto, the prediction for 2008 for the buck is — an enormous reversal. Pop goes the euro! Here’s hoping.
Ron Paul Revolution: WSJ’s sly hit piece on Paul….
The Mainstream Media are at it again - with this slyly worded mishmash of innuendo and obfuscation about Ron Paul. My comments are in caps and I also bolded important words in the piece:
“Paul’s Supporters Clash with Media”
Amy Schatz, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 24, 2007, A4
[LR: CLASH? AS IN VIOLENT ALTERCATION? AS IN "RP FANS ATTACK LONE JOURNALIST"? HOW ABOUT THIS-- "MEDIA CLASHES WITH RON PAUL'S CAMPAIGN"? SOUNDS A LOT MORE LIKE THE TRUTH]
Early Halloween morning, “Taco John” posted a message-board call to arms: “Baltimore Sun Hit Piece…TAKE ACTION NOW!”
[LR: NOTICE THE REPETITION OF THE MEME OF VIOLENCE IN THE PHRASE "CALL-TO-ARMS" -- AS THOUGH PAUL'S STORM TROOPERS ARE OUT ON THE STREETS IN STEEL HELMETS]
RON PAUL 2008
![[balloons]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/it_election-balloons02272007120148.gif)
Ron Pauls’s official Web site: www.ronpaul2008.com
Forums: www.ronpaulforums.com
News: www.dailypaul.com
The paper’s political blog had an item marveling at how Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul had raised more money than “better-known Mike Huckabee, who is taken more seriously.“
[LR: "BETTER KNOWN"? HUCKABEE WAS UNKNOWN A SHORT WHILE BACK. SO WHAT'S THE NEWS -WORTHINESS OF SUGGESTING THAT HE'S BETTER KNOWN NOW? EXCEPT TO MASSAGE PUBLIC OPINION IN THAT DIRECTION?]
[LR: AND THAT PHRASE, "TAKEN MORE SERIOUSLY" IS MANIPULATIVE TOO. TAKEN SERIOUSLY BY WHOM? BY THE KING-MAKERS IN THE PRESS PRESUMABLY? THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT INTO THE WAR MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE, WEREN'T THEY? WHAT MAKES THEIR OPINION INFALLIBLE?]
Taco John took to an Internet forum frequented by Paul supporters, providing a link to the offending item, as well as phone and email information for the newspaper’s public editor and advertising department. “They’re trying to pigeonhole us,” he wrote. “If we don’t fight back, they’ll keep doing it.”
Taco John, the online moniker of Isaac Lopez, a 32-year-old technology marketer in Vancouver, Wash., is one of many cyber-soldiers for Dr. Paul, the Texas congressman, gynecologist and vociferous opponent of the Iraq war.
[LR: NOTICE THAT PHRASE "CYBER SOLDIER" -- CONTINUING THE IMAGERY OF VIOLENCE]
The Paul brigade [LR: MORE OF THE SAME] has largely drawn attention for its fund-raising prowess, raising a record $4.2 million online in a single day in November and leaving the 72-year-old politician with more cash on hand than several rivals and a $1 million TV ad budget for New Hampshire. But some Paul supporters are displaying an aggressive
[WHY NOT CITE A SPECIFIC EXAMPLE AND THEN CITE A FEW FROM OTHER CAMPAIGNS TOO? TASERING THAT 21 YEAR OLD STUDENT AT KERRY'S SPEECH WITH 50,000 VOLTS - NOW THAT SOUNDS LIKE AGGRESSIVE TO ME]
side that seems to spill beyond advocacy into harassment of those [LR: NAME THESE HARASSERS, PLEASE] who disagree or fail to show Dr. Paul sufficient respect.
Taco John, for example, posted contact information for a university professor who called Dr. Paul “unqualified to be president.” [LR: LET'S SEE. ONE PAUL SUPPORTER POSTS SOMEONE'S CONTACT INFORMATION (ACCORDING TO YOU, OF COURSE) AND YOU'RE SHOCKED, SHOCKED. WHAT ABOUT ALL THE PRO-WAR GROUPS THAT ROUTINELY HARASS, SHUT DOWN, AND SLANDER ANYONE WHO EVEN CRITICIZES US POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST? NO WORRIES THERE?]
He also provided information on how to reach several reporters with whom he quibbled, as well as the Iowa Republican Party after it helped set rules for a debate — later canceled — that could have excluded the low-polling Dr. Paul.
[LR: LOW POLLING IN POLLS RUN BY WHOM? RELATIVE TO THE LEVEL OF MONEY HE HAS, PAUL BEATS THE MAJOR CANDIDATES HANDS DOWN IN SUPPORT]
Taco John — the handle comes from Mr. Lopez’s appreciation of former Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway and tacos — is a neophyte activist, who says he was inspired by Dr. Paul’s libertarian platform.
![[Ron Paul]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/HC-GL038_Paul_20071120223939.jpg)
Some blogs have booted Paul supporters for leaving incendiary comments.
[IF YOU WANT INCENDIARY COMMENTS, TRY ANY OF THE PRO-WAR STATIST BLOGS...WHERE YOU'LL FIND FOUL LANGUAGE, PERSONAL ATTACKS, AND REAL RACISTS. IF YOU CAN'T MENTION THEM, THEN DON'T PICK ON PAUL].
They have also been frozen out of Internet surveys and accused of electronic ballot stuffing;
[LR: "ACCUSED" IS NOT CONVICTED...NOT EVEN IN PUBLIC OPINION. IT'S EASIER TO THROW AROUND INNUENDO THAN POINT OUT FACTS. FACTS LIKE CLINTON'S USE OF FBI FILES ON HER OPPONENTS, OR TAKING MONEY FROM NORMAN HSU, OR OTHER UNSAVORY LITTLE FACTOIDS IN HER RESUME. OR WHAT ABOUT GUILIANI'S CONNECTION WITH BERNARD FIDDLING-WHILE-NEW YORK-BURNS- KERIK? HOW ABOUT WORRYING ABOUT THAT?]
Dr. Paul rarely loses online straw polls even though he barely registers in national telephone polls. His supporters argue that they win online polls because there are more Paul supporters and they’re better organized.
Many of Dr. Paul’s supporters say they’re simply fighting a media and political establishment that won’t give him a fair shake.
[LR: THAT'S NOT WHAT HIS SUPPORTERS "SAY." UNTIL RECENTLY, THAT WAS THE CLEAR FACT]
The big Nov. 5 “moneybomb” fund raiser was timed to coincide with Guy Fawkes Day and inspired by the 1980s comic-book series “V for Vendetta,” in which a vigilante in a Guy Fawkes mask wages war against a totalitarian British state.
The Paul campaign has also drawn support from antigovernment fringe groups and 9/11 conspiracy theorists.
[LR: ANTI-GOVERNMENT IS FRINGE? THIS FROM A WRITER AT THE WSJ? SINCE WHEN IS A PURE CONSTITUTIONALIST "FRINGE" ? I GUESS SINCE BIG GOVERNMENT WAR-MONGERS STARTED RUNNING THE PLACE.
AS FOR THOSE "CONSPIRACY THEORIES" ABOUT 9-11, WHY BOTHER WITH THEM? WHAT DO YOU CALL THE CLEAR-AS-DAYLIGHT "CONSPIRACY FACT" CALLED THE PROJECT FOR THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY, SIGNED BY BONA FIDE, OUT-OF-THE-CLOSET CONSPIRACISTS, ALL WORKING IN MAJOR MEDIA OR IN GOVERNMENT. THAT'S THE CONSPIRACY THAT CALLS FOR AMERICAN DOMINATION OF THE WORLD (OH YES, AND OUTER SPACE TOO) AND ENDLESS, RANDOM, PREEMPTIVE WARS.
IT'S WHY THE REST OF THE WORLD IS GLOATING AS THE DOLLAR COLLAPSES.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIN-FOIL HATS ARE IN POWER -- NOT ON THE FRINGE]
Since mid-September, a large “Ron Paul for President” banner has flashed at the bottom of white-supremacist Internet forum Stormfront.org.
[LR: OH YAWN! BACK TO SMEAR 101. MENTION PAUL NEXT TO STORMFRONT...HEY, WHY NOT HITLER, JACK THE RIPPER, GENGHIS KHAN AND BELA LUGOSI, TOO? MEANWHILE, WHAT ABOUT FEMINAZIS FOR HILLARY.....OR ZIONISTS FOR RUDY.
NOT AS CATCHY?
OR ARE SOME BIGOTRIES MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS?
STORMFRONT - NASTY AS ITS LANGUAGE IS - DOESN'T YET HAVE A KILL RECORD OF MILLION PLUS. THE PROWAR LOBBY DOES]
“Really, we haven’t seen a candidate like Ron Paul in some time. The closest would have been Pat Buchanan” in 2000, says Don Black of West Palm Beach, Fla., the group’s founder and a former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard, who donated $500 to Mr. Paul’s campaign.
[EVEN ANDREW SULLIVAN THOUGHT THIS PIECE OF TRIPE WAS CHARACTER ASSASSINATION. BUT HERE'S WHAT. PAUL SHOULD RETURN THIS MONEY. BUT SO SHOULD GUILIANI, OBAMA, MCCAIN, CLINTON AND THE REST RETURN MONEY THEY'VE TAKEN FROM ZIO-CON RACISTS AS WELL AS FROM ANTI-SEMITIC EVANGELICAL RACISTS].
The Paul campaign has a hands-off approach when it comes to supporters’ activities and political backgrounds. While grateful for the money, aides insist they aren’t responsible for what supporters do online. “We don’t know who a lot of these people are,” says Jesse Benton, a campaign spokesman.
Mr. Benton declined to make Dr. Paul available to comment. “Sometimes, Ron Paul supporters get a little over passionate and maybe a little more shrill than what some might like,” Mr. Benton says. “For the most part, our supporters are polite and mannerly.” He has his own conspiracy theory: Some other candidates’ supporters may be masquerading as Ron Paul supporters to hurt his campaign.
[LR: YES, HOW ABOUT THAT? THAT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN NOW, WOULD IT?]
The impassioned campaigning threatens Dr. Paul’s efforts to convince undecided Republicans that he appeals to more than antiwar libertarians and fringes of the Republican Party.
[LR: ANTIWAR LIBERTARIANS ARE FRINGE REPUBLICANS? OH, PLEASE! ABOUT 40% OF THE COUNTRY (THE PART WHICH IS WIDE AWAKE) IS ANTIWAR AND ABOUT A THIRD THINKS SOMETHING WAS AMISS ON 9-11].
![[Chart]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AO616_PAUL_20071123194447.gif)
“Basically, it got to the point where someone could put up a post saying they were going to the bathroom, and a dozen Paultards would comment, ‘Vote for Ron Paul while you’re there,’ along with another dozen warnings of the Zionist conspiracy in the toilet,” says Erick Erickson, founder of popular conservative blog Redstate. A month ago, the site banned posts from some Paul supporters, branding them “MoRons.”
[LR; MORONS, PAULTARDS - WHY AREN'T THOSE IN QUOTES? THOSE ARE SOMEONE'S NASTY OPINIONS, NOT FACTS. MEANWHILE, YOU'RE ACCUSING PAUL SUPPORTERS OF BEING AGGRESSIVE.
DOUBLE STANDARDS, DON'T YOU THINK? AND NOTICE THAT YOU CALL REDSTATE BLOG "POPULAR," WHILE YOUR WHOLE PIECE IS SLANTED TOWARD TELLING US THAT RON PAUL IS NOT.
YOUR BIAS IS SHOWING, DEAR. DO TRY TO COVER UP]
Afterward, the site was “deluged” with comments and “swarms and swarms” of hate mail, Mr. Erickson says. He changed the site’s phone number, and says other blog owners have contacted him seeking advice on discouraging Paul supporters from posting.
[LR: HATE MAIL? WHY DOESN'T ERIC ERICKSON COME OUT WITH THIS HATE MAIL AND SEE IF IT'S ANYTHING UNUSUAL OR JUST A FIGMENT OF HIS IMAGINATION. LET'S HAVE A LOOK AT THE MAIL WRITTEN BY CLINTON'S PEOPLE OR ROMNEY'S]
Cris Vanricma of Ludington, Mich., removed Dr. Paul from his bipartisan presidential poll, StrawPoll08.com, after receiving nasty emails from some Paul supporters, contending some polls that Dr. Paul wasn’t winning were rigged.
[LR: "NASTY EMAILS"...POOR DEAR. THE NASTIEST WEB POSTS ARE USUALLY FROM FOAMING-AT-THE-MOUTH FANS OF CARPET BOMBING AND THEIR STATIST BUDDIES. LIBERTARIANS (LEFT AND RIGHT) TEND TO BE LONERS AND NOT GIVEN TO PACK ANIMAL BEHAVIOR]
The 31-year-old Web designer made a blanket offer: If the messages stop, the congressman goes back on. So far, Dr. Paul remains off the poll.
[LR; YEAH., YEAH. I BELIEVE THIS AND I BELIEVE THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING GREAT, AND I'M BUYING ME SOME BANK STOCKS FROM THE TOOTH FAIRY TOO]
With issues like the Iraq war and civil liberties at stake, some supporters argue that now isn’t the time for half-measures. David Chesley, 33, of Van Nuys, Calif., put his law practice on hold so he could support Dr. Paul. Mr. Chesley says he was attracted by the congressman’s views on protecting the Constitution after what he considers President Bush’s assault on civil liberties since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. “I have an obligation to make this my full-time job,” says the former Democrat. “All I do every day is go on the Internet or make phone calls or email the media.”
When he felt the media paid too little attention to the Nov. 5 fund raiser, Mr. Chesley, who posts as “RP2008″ on a Ron Paul message board, was furious. On Nov. 9, he urged others to “ceaselessly bombard” media outlets. “You need to organize, call, boycott, protest and sue the media that is lying to us, and if you don’t, it is your own d- fault if Ron Paul loses,” he wrote.
[LR: "BOMBARD "-- NICE TOUCH, THERE. AND THAT "DAMN" -- NEVER EVER HEARD SUCH FOUL LANGUAGE FROM A HILLARY OR BARACK GROUPIE, HAVE YOU? O TEMPORA, O MORES....]
Some Paul supporters preach restraint. “I cannot stand to read another reporter/blogger complain about how they have received profane/threatening/intimidating responses from Ron Paul supporters,” wrote “Hestia,” a frequent poster on the Daily Paul, a popular pro-Paul site. “Sending hostile and abusive emails will not win supporters or encourage bloggers or reporters to write positive articles,” Hestia adds.
[LR: NOTICE THAT ALL THE ADJECTIVES PILED ON ARE NO MORE THAN QUOTES FROM A PAUL BLOGGER SUGGESTING WHAT NOT TO DO AND WHAT THE MEDIA IS ACCUSING PAUL SUPPORTERS OF DOING. BUT IT'S NOT WHAT PAUL SUPPORTERS ARE DOING.
NOTICE THAT THE REST OF THE ARTICLE IS A QUOTE FROM ANOTHER JOURNALIST OPPOSED TO PAUL TO SUCH AN EXTENT HE CALLS ALL HIS SUPPORTERS MORONS AND RETARDS.
NOTICE THAT THE REST OF THE ARTICLE DOES NOTHING MORE THAN GLOM ON TO STORMFRONT AND A 500 BUCK DONATION.
NOTICE THAT NO ONE'S TALKING ABOUT THE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS GIVEN BY THE ZIO-CON WAR MACHINE THAT KILLS MILLIONS IN COLD FACT, NOT JUST WHAT SOME SMALL GROUP OF MARGINAL RACISTS HAPPEN TO SAY.
SO AT THE END OF THE DAY, ALL THAT'S FACTUAL IN THIS PIECE IS THAT SOME JOURNALISTS (WITH AXES TO GRIND) ACCUSE PAUL FANS OF BEING HOSTILE, ABUSIVE, THREATENING, PROFANE .....
MAYBE THEY'VE BEEN LOOKING INTO THE MIRROR TOO LONG. SOUNDS LIKE THEY'RE DESCRIBING THEMSELVES]
Write to Amy Schatz at Amy.Schatz@wsj.com.
And here’s a sample of Ms. Schatz’ prior reporting on Ron Paul - “Ron Paul: Capturing the Spammer Vote?.
This piece with its sniffiness (”not ready for prime-time”) not-so subtly suggests that Paul is winning polls only by ballot stuffing, without which Guiliani - surprise! - would be the winner.The same allegation in repeated in this next piece of hers, only a month later in March 2007, “Ron Paul Finds Enthusiastic Supporters.”
Of course, Ron Paul fans aren’t the only one whom Ms. Schatz would like to put in their place. She’d like to put the blogosphere back in the kitchen next to the help, as evident from this Outside the Beltway reference to “self-appointed bloggers.”
Feed the world with words….and rice…
Play a word game at Free Rice and for each word you get right, they will donate 100 grams of rice to the hungry.
Neat idea - doing good while having fun - and plenty addictive. I totaled 540 grams playing today and plan to do a bit every day. (Do you know what nitid is? or feracious? Me neither. I could have gone on forever, but I was feeling esurient…and had to go and get dinner….oops, refection).
Here’s what they write on their site:
About Free Rice:
FreeRice is a sister site of the world poverty site, Poverty.com.
FreeRice has two goals:
- Provide English vocabulary to everyone for free.
- Help end world hunger by providing rice to hungry people for free.
This is made possible by the sponsors who advertise on this site.
Whether you are CEO of a large corporation or a street child in a poor country, improving your vocabulary can improve your life. It is a great investment in yourself.
Perhaps even greater is the investment your donated rice makes in hungry human beings, enabling them to function and be productive. Somewhere in the world, a person is eating rice that you helped provide. Thank you.
Thanks to Chris Kevill at Modern Vedic Astrology for the tip.
Financial Follies: questioning the oil price
The oil price, everyone tells us, is exploding upward because of…demand from Asia….fears about supply interruptions….geopolitical worries...diminishing supplies….
Maybe all those. But I blogged another explanation recently which made sense. If you are a Saudi sitting on top of a pile of dhirams pegged to the dollar and the dollar is tanking, you can’t dump your dollars in a hurry without setting off an even bigger avalanche, right?
So, what if you hiked the oil price in bucks to cover your losses and used the dollar as collateral (very illiquid) to buy up more useful assets?
Econ-job: Enter the Bear…..
“Note that the S&P and the Wilshire have NOT confirmed the Dow. In one of the strangest situations I’ve ever dealt with, neither the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000 have confirmed the Dow in that neither the S&P nor the Wilshire have violated their August 16 lows. What is the meaning of this absolutely weird situation? I don’t know — honestly I really don’t know. But it is certainly something to think about.
Does the superior action of the S&P and the Wilshire cast doubt on the Dow Theory bear signal? I don’t know. I’ve never in fifty years of watching market action seen this type of situation.
“There isn’t a lot more that I can say that is worth saying. The market has told its story. The scene has changed. I’ve lived through these changes before, and so have my subscribers. A few of my subscribers have been with me for almost 50 years. We’ve survived and done pretty well over those 50 years. We will continue to survive, regardless of the mildness or ferocity of this bear market….”
Richard Russell on how Dow Theory confirms that we have begun a bear market
Trader Technique: Bruce Lee on becoming water….
“Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless–like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash! Be water my friend.“
- Bruce Lee
Jiddu Krishnamurthi: be first-hand, not second-hand
“For centuries we have been spoon-fed by our teachers, by our authorities, by our books, our saints. We say, ‘Tell me all about it—what lies beyond the hills and the mountains and the earth?’ and we are satisfied with their descriptions, which means that we live on words and our life is shallow and empty. We are second hand people. We have lived on what we have been told, either guided by our inclinations, our tendencies, or compelled to accept by circumstances and environment. We are the result of all kinds of influences and there is nothing new in us, nothing that we have discovered for ourselves; nothing original, pristine, clear.
Jiddu Krishnamurthi in Freedom From The Known (1969)
Comment:
It’s heresy to say this, but K has never appealed to me all that much….
What he says is perfectly true, and as far as I can tell, in the tradition of advaita (non-dualism), but his criticism of bourgeois thinking and imagery only goes so far with me. I agree upto the point where he talks about “flow,”much as Bruce Lee does in my next post, but when he attacks all concepts and conceptualization (maybe I am misunderstanding him?) — he loses me. It’s not concepts that are the problem but identification with concepts — or am I wrong?
Concepts and memory may be the kingdom of death….. but don’t they make up half of a whole? We exist with one foot in death.
Gurdjieff is closer to me on all this…
Ron Paul Revolution: Jonah comes out of the whale..(revised)
Not being a closeted Paulster, Jonah Goldberg couldn’t quite “come out,” but at least he’s poking his head out from inside the whale (aka, the almighty leviathan of statism) in this column, via Steve Bartin, from the Lew Rockwell Blog.
“Jonah is great on Huckabee and not too bad on Ron. He even pooh-poohs the smears of some of his fellow neocons. Jonah, good for you, even if you are only recognizing, on the distant horizon, the first signs of the Ron Paul Tsunami that will transform American politics.”
Here’s a sample of Goldberg’s piece:
“I would not vote for Paul mostly because I think his foreign policy would be disastrous (Also, he’d lose in a rout not seen since Bambi versus Godzilla). But there’s something weird going on when Paul, the small-government constitutionalist, is considered the extremist in the Republican party, while Huckabee, the statist, is the lovable underdog. It’s even weirder because it’s probably true: Huckabee is much closer to the mainstream. And that’s what scares me about Huckabee and the mainstream alike.”
Comment:
Hey Jonah! Bambi versus Godzilla? How about David versus Goliath? We know how that turned out….
Ron Paul Revolution: The rational man in an irrational world
“The ancient Greeks (and perhaps Aristotle specifically though I have not had time to look up The Nicomachean Ethics) used to give logical examples of how in a world of irrationality, the lone rational man shall be at risk of being universally misjudged as the person who is irrational. That seems to be what Ron Paul is experiencing now in American politics. None of the other candidates, Democrat or Republican, can hold a candle to him in terms of thoughtfulness, integrity or self-knowledge, and hence their attack-dogs will certainly bark that he is the one who is mad, not they. It is the fate of the rational man in an irrational world. Can America’s ordinary voters return to their 18th Century candor and get to see that? If (and only if) they can, he will win….”
Dr. Subroto Roy at Indian and Pakistani Friends of Ron Paul.
THE ONLY PRO NATIONAL DEFENSE, ANTIWAR, FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE.
AGAINST PREEMPTIVE WAR
AGAINST TORTURE
AGAINST THE PATRIOT ACT
AGAINST AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS
FOR STRONG DEFENSE
FOR SECURE BORDERS
FOR FISCAL SANITY
FOR STATES’ RIGHTS
FOR THE CONSTITUTION
Ron Paul Revolution: Crony Constitutionalism
Joseph Sobran on how tyranny came to America:
“According to the Declaration of Independence, the rights of the people come from God, and the powers of the government come from the people….”
“The Constitution was the instrument by which the American people granted, or delegated, certain specific powers to the federal government. Any power not delegated was withheld, or “reserved.” As we’ll see later, these principles are expressed particularly in the Ninth and Tenth Amendments, two crucial but neglected provisions of the Constitution…”
“Let me say it yet again: The rights of the people come from God. The powers of government come from the people. …..”
“You can think of the Constitution as a sort of antitrust act for government, with the Ninth and Tenth Amendments at its core. It’s remarkable that the same liberals who think business monopolies are sinister think monopolies of political power are progressive. When they can’t pass their programs because of the constitutional safeguards, they complain about “gridlock” — a cliché that shows they miss the whole point of the enumeration and separation of powers. …”
And here’s Sobran on the only way tyranny might yet be overthrown in America:
“Can we restore the Constitution and recover our freedom? I have no doubt that we can. Like all great reforms, it will take an intelligent, determined effort by many people. I don’t want to sow false optimism….
But the time is ripe for a constitutional counterrevolution. Discontent with the ruling system, as the 1992 Perot vote showed, is deep and widespread among several classes of people: Christians, conservatives, gun owners, taxpayers, and simple believers in honest government all have their reasons. The rulers lack legitimacy and don’t believe in their own power strongly enough to defend it.The beauty of it is that the people don’t have to invent a new system of government in order to get rid of this one. They only have to restore the one described in the Constitution — the system our government already professes to be upholding. Taken seriously, the Constitution would pose a serious threat to our form of government. And for just that reason, the ruling parties will be finished as soon as the American people rediscover and awaken their dormant Constitution…”Comment:
[NB: "God" in this context need not automatically raise any secularist/humanist hackles -- more on this below]
If you want US Govt. Inc. to win, vote blindfolded - for any of the leading candidates, Dem or Repub. It won’t matter which.
If you want America to win, vote Ron Paul.
It’s that simple.
There’s no one else who’s defended the constitution in season and out, when it was unpopular, when he was unknown, no matter who was in power, or who asked for the money, or what they wanted it for.
No matter what the issue, Ron Paul’s question was always the same: Is it constitutional?
The American Constitution has not had a more loyal champion in government in the last thirty years.
We’ve tried capitalist cronyism and socialist cronyism.
Let’s try a crony of the constitution.
Update:
From Jonathan Rowe at Cato Unbound.
“The inescapable conclusion is that America does have a political theology; it is just not Christianity. (For more on America’s founding creed, see this article.) Nature’s God was theologically unitarian, universalist (did not eternally damn anyone) syncretist (most or all world religions worshipped Him), partially inspired the Christian Scriptures, and man’s reason was ultimate device for understanding Him. He was not quite the strict Deist God that some secular scholars have made Him out to be. But neither was He the Biblical God. Rather, somewhere in between….” (In other words, the founders subscribed to something not so far from the syncretist “wisdom” tradition, and like this blogger, saw no essential divergence between that and the enlightenment. That’s something both militant evangelicals and dogmatic atheists can’t seem to bend their minds around).
Update 2:
In her excellent book “The Rosicrucian Enlightenment,” Frances Yates stated the case for hermetic/occult influence on the Age of Reason too enthusiastically (as one of the greatest historians of the period, John Pocock, cautioned those of us who embraced Dame Frances uncritically)– but at least, she put it out there….
Jim Rogers on liquidating when you need to…
“I started out with $600, a second hand Volkswagen, and a wife. One was an asset and one was a liability. I will let you figure out which was which. I liquidated both, and still had the $600. I worked long hours, and spent weekends reading about markets. I simply love it. You have to love what you do, whether it be gardening, hairdressing, etc. When you love it, then the money follows. Even if it doesn’t, you will still be happy. Being happy and poor is better than being unhappy and poor. As for making money, I did very little marketing. The key is to make your clients money. If you have a good track record, people will find you and knock on your door. Just make your clients money….”
Is Lila Rajiva a CIA agent?
This is for whoever is nursing a misplaced anxiety about my possible affiliation and frantically conducting searches into it…
NO. I am not now, nor have I ever been, nor plan to be, a CIA agent, flunky, or stooge…(well, on that last — one can never tell. It’s possible I’ve posted articles which were concocted as disinformation, but if so, that would be pure error and I probably mentioned somewhere that I wasn’t sure about the authenticity of the information - I usually don’t touch topics where I can’t tell if what’s going on is staged…)
The closest I got to the CIA was at a dinner party two years ago, when I met the former head of the psychic research division at the CIA. (There was one…it was shut down, so they say…more on that at another time).
We had a lengthy conversation about the CIA, Aurobindo, and mind-body research. I still get circulars from the outfit he runs now which develops forecasting systems for business. He’s an engineer and fighter pilot, who builds planes in his spare time - but we share interests in Rudolph Steiner and philosophy.
So much for the Mata Hari thing. Besides that, I’ve worked in India (for a couple of months) for a Christian aid organization (World Vision) - helping with promotional material for potential donors to medical care for the poor. I mention it because I’ve read that some Christian mission and aid organizations have ties with the CIA. But, if there were any moles sniffing around, I didn’t know any of them.
As anyone who follows this blog would know, any espionage or terrorist organization who tried to recruit me would be shooting itself in the foot - as big- mouthed as I am.
I’d probably be blogging the whole thing…
Bankers and Bozos…Jim Rogers calls Paulson & Bernanke fools….
Jim Rogers was on TV last night, talking about the dollar crisis. (Yes, it’s now a full-blow crisis).
Bernanke, he said, is a total fool. I’m sure words like”jackasses,” “dimwits,” “cretins,” “morons,” and “numskulls” were trembling on his tongue, but public decorum prevented them tumbling out.
Seems he once thought Paulson and Bernanke were both reasonably competent. Especially Hank Paulson, being a Goldman CEO an’ all (than which exalted post, dear reader, there is no more exalted post in the USA). Turns out, JR is no more sanguine about it, what with Bernanke trashing the dollar over here, whilst Paulson runs around the globe pretending he wants to prop it up.
And Bernanke, he says, doesn’t even know anything about economics. Asked about the impact of the dying dollar on American consumption, Big Ben does a Marie Antoinette:
“Let them buy Yank.”
“You big lovable lug,” says Rogers (or some such words) — “D’you suppose American manufacturers are just dying to keep the price of American goods sweet ‘n’ low for their dear, dear countrymen, when prices are up elsewhere?”
Well - I got news for Jim. I don’t know about Bernanke, but Hank Paulson is no flunk-out from Econ 101.
The word you are looking for, Mr. Rogers, is KNAVE.
Goldman Sachs alums, bless their sterling little hearts DON’T CARE what happens to the dollar. They care EVEN LESS about the American consumer or the American economy.
If anyone can find any evidence to the contrary, I will be happy to send them an apology. Until that time, I’ll just stick with giving the whole crew of big bankers the bird.
Yes that one - turkey suits them to a tee…
Comment:
Of course, rushing out and selling dollars for euros at what might be the bottom mayn’t be the best idea. If I remember right, Rogers was “bullish” on the dollar (short term, I imagine) earlier this fall, anticipating a spike. Well, the spike isn’t here and the dollar index broke it’s lower channel with no resistance to speak of, falling straight from 78-80 to 75 with a very feeble bounce since then.
There’s not guarantee it won’t go to 60…
So the question again is where do you go?
My plan is to buy real estate in Asia - probably, Malaysia, but it’s not one most people can follow. And I notice that Malaysian real estate is now being priced in euros…
I think the Chinese, Japanese and Saudi currencies look like good buys at the first spike up- or, even now….
I am too nervous to buy gold over $800 frankly (that’s around 79 on the etf), though I think geo-political concerns could well drive it to $1000.
Dollar doldrums: Turn left coming out of the Straits of Hormuz
From a correspondent (can’t vouch for its authenticity, but found the commentary interesting):
“We’re not going to be done with the subprime mortgage when the CDOs fall. Therefore we will have an insolvency problem with the banks that are mentioned above.
This is the kiss of death of a privately held Federal Reserve. For the Federal Reserve to function, its stakeholder banks (like JP Morgan Chase) must remain viable and liquid. When one of them, or any major bank in the U.S. (like Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York, Washington Mutual, etc.) is impaired or ceases to exist, the architecture of the Fed’s capacity to respond to systemic challenges is unsustainable.
If the banks have no money, they can’t pump liquidity into the market. Taking half of a trillion dollars out of market in a single distressed write down becomes problematic. The US banking system does not have the liquidity to take the hit.
The actual solvency of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is relatively indecipherable due to the fact that their treasury management processes (and the risks of their own investment strategies) are not uniformly disclosed with sufficient transparency. The FDIC was set up for isolated problems with a few bad banks but is NOT prepared to “insure” the system in an industry-wide crisis. The actual liquidity reserve of the “insurance” that Americans view as their safety net is 1/100th the actual exposure of outstanding deposits. The actual coverage ratio for the Bank Insurance Fund (BIF) fell below 1.25% in 2002, the same year that less stable credit practices were adopted by America’s leading banks.
The funny part is that the Federal Government will be on holiday when all of this happens. There will be no one to put freeze actions and moratoria on actions. The only way you stop the cataclysm is to put together civil actions on deposit withdrawals.
As I discussed previously, the Chinese currency wild-card may become relevant far sooner than expected. An effort by China to convert its $1.4 trillion U.S. Treasury holdings into euros is not viable for many reasons – not the least of which is the European Central Bank’s inability to absorb such an event. As China continues its rush away from supporting U.S. Treasuries and as Middle Eastern investors are buying them up in more diversified holdings, a new “currency exchange” is unfolding. Realizing that they cannot liquidate their holdings, it appears that the Chinese are currently using their U.S. Treasury holdings as collateral for euro denominated purchases and long term infrastructure transactions. In other words, they may be “liquidating” their holdings as collateral and, in so doing, effectively migrating to non-dollar value without ever having to officially dump their current Treasury holdings.
Therefore, collateralize the credit in dollars – especially if you’re long in dollars. The lender/financier won’t call the note because you have it structured in such a way to both allow it to perform and hold illiquid collateral that no one wants. This essentially inflates euros. Although you can’t sell dollars, the whole purpose of collateral is that it is a second source of payment – collateral is there to down rate the risk of the loan. Secondary becomes irrelevant.
When February comes, the Chinese are going to do something as they will have to decide what the exposure is going to be with the treasury. As I see it they have to just dump the treasury. They only keep it because they can use it – they have 43% direct/indirect of US treasuries so they’ll dump them on the market.
The US Congressional pressures to decouple the RMB will work, but not in the way we want. Our plan includes helping them hold on to the treasuries, it does not involve them not holding the dollar anymore. The US wanted the tether to be part of the float. This will cause disenfranchisement of the US electorate (during primary season). February is also when public (media) will realize we won’t pull out of this.
Side note: Mayor Bloomberg could enter the race at this point, being the savior candidate (at least economically), but has $1B dollars in non-liquid money so he may not be able to enter.
- March is when we realize that the dollar doesn’t come back.
OPEC price with the whole fluctuation of oil futures presages the event. They are going to run the price of oil as high as they can get it on the dollar, while buying US treasuries from China with the money. When the dollar does collapse, they’ll flip denominations. The wild card is long about March when the OPEC cuts spot oil off the dollar to the euro. One can look at the current oil price at close to $100/barrel and fail to see that, as this premium price is currently turning around and investing in a weakening dollar, the effective price (less the dollar investment hedge) is probably closer to $50/barrel than the spot price reflects.
Currency problems will change the game – they are financially structuring themselves to take the hit.
When we can’t afford to buy oil commodities on a spot market – it compounds the problem however the consumer that Saudi Arabia ships to is liquid (China). In the US it is a big problem. There is still a market for oil; it just changes. When you come out of Straits of Hormuz, turn left.”
Jefferson and Madison on the first amendment
Thomas Jefferson:
“Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between man and his God, that he owes to none other for his faith or his worship, that the legislative powers of government reach actions only, and not opinions, I contemplate with solemn reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should ‘make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof,’ thus building a wall of separation between Church and State.” (emphasis ours)
James Madison, 1789-JUN-7 “The Civil Rights of none shall be abridged on account of religious belief or worship, nor shall any national religion be established, nor shall the full and equal rights of conscience be in any manner, nor on any pretext infringed. No state shall violate the equal rights of conscience or the freedom of the press, or the trial by jury in criminal cases.”
” In the spring of 1778, the Constitutional Convention was held in Philadelphia, PA. They resolved three main religious controversies. They:
Decided that there would be no religious test, oath or other requirement for any federal elected office Allowed Quakers and others to affirm (rather than swear) their oaths of office Refrained from recognizing the religion of Christianity, or one of its denominations, as an established, state church. With all the excessive interest shown in Mitt Romney’s religion, it might be worth noting that the founders were expressly prohibiting tests/oaths of faith for office, protecting freedom of religion, as well as endorsing freedom from (an established, or state) religion.
The main problem underlying church state doctrine is that constitutional law has never gone into what constitutes a religion (hence most of the seminal cases are filled with ambiguity and either favor the state or majority religion too heavily (Scalia’s opinions) or are simply confused (O’Connor). In my opinion, a number of cultural Marxist positions that are now promoted as universal and imposed as such do violate church- state separation if we read the word church broadly to include orgnaized beliefs that go to the “fundamentals” of life (nature of human life, gender roles and family, existence of the soul and afterlife, or not).
So, on a matter such as abortion, where there are several credible moral and theological positions possible, devolution to the states is the best guarantor that diversity of opinion will really be preserved.
Jung, Pauli and Synchronicity…..
“While studying the behavior of subatomic particles, Pauli became enamored with mirrors and their reflections as a model for particle behavior. A friend wrote, making fun of his obsession with mirrors. Pauli wrote back, quoting the legend of Perseus and the Medusa.
In the mythical tale, the Medusa was a monster said to be so ugly that men would turn to stone if they gazed at her. Perseus used his shield to see her reflection and thus was able to slay her.
Shortly after sending this reply, Pauli received a paper from a former student he hadn’t heard from in years. The paper was about a fungus called Mykes, which is light sensitive. Mykes in Greek means “mushroom.” Shortly thereafter, he read an essay on Jungian philosophy about symbolism in the story of Perseus. It described how Perseus founded the town of Mykenea after killing the Medusa. According to the story, Perseus found and dug up a mushroom, and in the process, caused a spring of water to come forth from the ground. Thus, the town Mykenea was named after that mushroom. Upon reading this, Pauli burst into hysterical laughter.5 This, and other synchronistic events he witnessed, caused him to explore outside the accepted rationality of science.
Arthur Koestler, in his book The Challenge of Chance, says it was appropriate for Pauli to develop the exclusion principle and also be one of the first to recognize limitations in the experimental method. In the exclusion principle, he showed the behavior of electron orbits made it appear as if there was a force operating, yet no known force was identifiable. In a similar manner, he felt that unseen forces might be operating on scientific apparatus, placing great limitations on the experimental observer.
Pauli was having great personal difficulties when he became acquainted with Carl Jung. Jung described him as a very one-sided, intellectual man. At his request, Jung began counseling with Pauli, starting with an analysis of his dreams. He was intrigued to find the physicist’s dreams paralleled some of the symbolism in alchemy, the mystical teachings of medieval times. He later incorporated this discovery into a paper titled Individual Dream Symbolism in Relation to Alchemy. Pauli’s dreams culminated in what Jung called a “conversion” experience.
Pauli had a dream, or vision, that he called the “world clock.” This was a figure that included two perpendicular discs contained within a golden ring. On the horizontal disc, four little men were holding pendulums, and the vertical disc had the hands of a clock. The figure was covered with numbers Jung recognized as being similar to those used in the Kabbalah, the mystical teachings of the ancient Hebrews. Jung interpreted the figure as being symbolic of the conscious and unconscious aspects of Pauli’s inner balance. For Pauli, it also seemed to represent the orderly nature of the universe. He found the dream provided a cure to his inner turmoil and began collaborating with Jung on some of his theories.”
Petition to release Imran Khan
“ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Roll Michael Jordan and Babe Ruth into one, throw in an Oxford education and a beautiful British aristocrat as an ex-wife and you get an idea of how big Imran Khan was as captain of Pakistan’s world champion cricket team in 1992.
He’s rarely made news as a politician — a rival once called him a sports hero and a political zero. But Khan was back in the spotlight Monday, beginning a hunger strike at the prison where he is being held for protesting against Pakistan’s military ruler.”
More by Michael Rosenberg at AP.
And from Pakistan Film Festival.com, a request:
Dear All, This is somehow emblematic of the depths to which the current outfit has sunk. This, below, is the message I sent in support of Bradford University's campaign, initiated today to have its chancellor, Imran Khan, the ex-cricket icon, freed. He has been jailed under so-called anti-terrorism legislation! What a sick joke. I am incandescent with rage that Imran Khan has been subjected to such immoral, shameful and illegal treatment. When a country locks up its heroes, the self-appointed rulers of that country are headed for ruin. I am a board director of Heer Productions, which over the past few years has been running the brave and challenging Pakistani Film, Media and Arts Festival in Scotland. In that role and in my work as a writer I utterly condemn the imposition of de facto Martial Law. I add my voice to my colleagues in Pakistan and abroad in demanding restoration of the constitution and that release of Imran Khan and all the other imprisoned judges, lawyers and human rights activists.
Check out this website now to add your support to the University of Bradford's petition and thence the people of Pakistan: www.bradford.ac.uk/chancellor/ Best wishes, Suhayl www.suhaylsaadi.com www.pakistanifilmfest.com
Global games: OPEC unwilling to side with Venzuela and Iran
“Venezuela – whose leftist President Hugo Chávez appears to revel in tweaking the nose of the US, which he alleges backed a failed coup against him five years ago – has been pushing for higher oil prices in tandem with Iran, as well as a move away from the US dollar.
In this, both countries failed. Saudi Arabia – which accounts for about 30 percent of OPEC production – clearly signaling its opposition to what it views as the politicization of the commodity.
After Mr. Chávez urged OPEC’s leaders to use their oil wealth to become an “active political agent” and warned that oil prices would rise above $200 a barrel if the US takes military action against his ally, Iran, Saudi King Abdullah dismissed his arguments.
“Oil … should not become a tool for conflict and emotions,” he said. “Those who want OPEC to become an organization of monopoly and exploitation ignore the truth.”
More by Dan Murphy at the Christian Science Monitor.
Bubble Kings have their own wealth abroad….
“Paulson has successfully orchestrated the rigging of the dollar in collaboration with crony banks like the BIS, ECB, BOJ and BOE (Barclays); and, surprisingly, for the moment,
From Rick Ackerman at Goldseek.Comment:
Anyone who thinks that the gold price has successfully broken free of manipulation this time round should watch it. When I wrote my investigative piece on Goldman Sachs last year, I too underestimated the grip they had on the system. I thought that the weakness of the subprime market and the problems with the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) - problems in which Goldman was involved - as well as their own corruption would eventually prove too much. Instead, GS managed to exploit and further extend its government ties. Its alumni are now in charge, not only of the Fed Reserve, US Treasury and other key government positions (including security), but also of 3 of the half dozen biggest banks. The result? GS not only managed to escape really being hit by the subprime mess but to fatten off of it. Not because of financial wizardry. But because of insider connections that get thicker and thicker with each tick of the clock.Moral of the story? Trade gold midterm (if you must) - don’t hold it and forget it (unless you bought it at historic lows). Better yet, forget about gold and try to buy real assets of good quality that generate cash flow.And help break through the PC fog. It’s not about whether there’s a woman or an African American in the White House. It’s not about gay marriage or gun control. All those are important issues, but right now, quite secondary.
I’m not against being courteous and calling anyone what they want to be called, but the result of falling in line with every part of PC is to keep you thinking that secondary issues are more important than they are. Whether they are for or against guns or gays or babies or birthpills, ALL the major candidates are FOR the present system. Whether it’s Barack or Hillary or Rudy or Fred, there’s still going to be bigger government, more wars, more manipulation of finance.
But don’t give up on the USA just yet. Not while there’s a bloke called Ron Paul around.
Ron Paul Revolution: greater evils & lesser evils versus not at all evil…
“People are accustomed to voting for the lesser of two evils. What happens when someone who is not evil shows up? Integrity is not generally an ingredient found in presidential elections and its presence here now changes the entire nature of the game. Ron Paul is not playing by the same rules as everyone else, and by playing by his own rules – by committing the political cardinal sin of meaning what he says – he changes the rules for everyone else. Candidates are now no longer measured against other politicians whose words mean nothing, but against a man of integrity, and in order to succeed they must rise to his level. But they can’t. A reputation earned in over thirty years of dealing with people is not something that can be bought. Nor can it be “spun” out of thin air. Quite simply: Ron Paul has something none of the other candidates have or can get in time for the elections. This fact alone could very possibly win him the Republican nomination and even the presidency.”
” I’ve always qualified my condemnation of politics and politicians with the words “except for Ron Paul.” I’d then usually say something like “but of course he doesn’t actually accomplish anything.” Well I was wrong about that. Really really wrong. For all these years, Dr. Paul has been building something no other politician has – something that when just one person has it, suddenly becomes an incredibly valuable asset: credibility. The question with regard to Ron Paul is not whether or not he will keep his campaign promises – he will. The only question is whether he will be able to accomplish what he has set out to. Will he be elected? And if he is, how far will he be able to get on his wish list of dismantling the leviathan state to which we have become so accustomed?”Great piece on Ron Paul by Bretigne Shaffer and why indifference to politics is no longer an acceptable reason not to vote this time.
Comment:
I call this holographic thinking. [correction: I am reading that the right phrase for this is holonomic, but since my understanding of holograms is that of a layman, consider this purely an artistic use of the term. I intend it just to suggest how we might be limiting the way we think about things because of the unconscious models we have in our mind). You change the ingredients and the patterns in the smallest interaction and it generates bigger patterns that alter the whole picture in a way you couldn’t have predicted from the initial size of the change.
That’s the significance of the parable of the yeast and the bread…. and of the fish and the loaves.
You can’t always predict things in a linear way because reality is not linear.
Global games: scenarios for future shocks
“1) Supply Availability: Fossil fuel is not permanent panacea for our energy needs and it cannot be replenished. Various experts claim oil had “peaked” after the year 2000, and this contention is consistent with the current trajectory of oil prices. Royal Dutch Shell alone was forced to cut its reserve estimates five times in 2004 [1]. Major oil firms are desperately trying to boost flagging oil and gas production capacities and their quandary is exemplified by an over-reliance on moribund fields worldwide, a prominent one being the Ghawar wells in Saudi Arabia.
Oil is now being extracted from deeper sources through more expensive processes i.e. water injection. The price of oil will remain high.
Peak Oil is also called “Hubbert’s Peak,” named after Shell geologist Dr Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970 and that global production would peak in 1995. This would have transpired had the oil shocks of the 70s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years.
2) Supply Stretch: Oil supply is so stretched that a concerted sabotage of two major pipelines in Russia or Saudi Arabia can precipitate pandemonium in the global economy. Hurricane Katrina, which, recently struck the oil producing Gulf Coast off the United States ratcheted oil to a record $70 per barrel. Major oil producing regions - Middle East, Central Asia, Russia and Venezuela - are bedeviled by terrorism and political volatility. Where stability exists, oil reserves are on a steep decline i.e. North America and the North Sea.
3) Environmental Factor: More hurricanes will ensue over the next few years in the Gulf Coast where most of the United States’ oil rigs and refineries are located. The “Atlantic multi-decadal mode” - where the “Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions conspire” every “20 to 40 years” to “produce just the right conditions to cause increased storm and hurricane activity”[2]- all point to a fragile energy climate ahead. This is a factor omitted by popular literature on the looming energy crisis.
4) Global Financial Crisis: The euro-zone countries hold over $200 billion in US securities while Asia holds $1 trillion or more. This is enough to sink the US economy, though foreign parties are well aware of the dangers of redeeming these securities too soon. US domestic and foreign deficits have reached historic proportions[3]. In a classic Catch-22 situation, US monopoly on oil is being countered by a foreign hoard of US securities. A global hedge fund and banking crisis is looming as well. Banks had “created capital during the cheap oil period by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that Tomorrow’s Expansion, fueled by cheap oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for Today’s Debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges.” (Campbell)
5) Soaring Prices: Goldman Sachs, among other reputed financial establishments, have already alerted markets of a possible “superspike” of US$105 per barrel. More recent projections place it even higher. In June 2005, despite repeated market assurances, OPEC raised its band system to US$40-US$50 (Reuters, June 24 2005). This band system may be revised further in lieu of a smooth global supply, which are not on the horizon.
THEORY:
The research is informed by the following theoretical assumptions:
The high price of oil is battering national economies, though the full extent of this will be actualized in the coming months or years. Current oil supplies have been inked and hedged in advance, at lower costs, though the rising band systems (or baskets) are placing a strain on any negotiated deals. To avoid a global industrial meltdown, or an outright collapse, oil supplies may have to be renegotiated in favor of major industrial powers like India and China to keep a crucial part of the global commerce running. There might be a further shift of basic, crucial manufacturing to these countries.
Here is a regional breakdown of scenarios underpinned by this research’s theoretical assumptions:
China: If its vast industrial expanse is threatened by an acute energy shortage, it might seize the purportedly oil-rich Spratly Islands, a chain of reefs also claimed by Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan and the Philippines - all of whom are vested with greater legitimacy under the UN’s Law of Seas Convention. China’s recent moves to acquire Unocal, and even Exxon, hints at its desperation for oil. Further military escalations in the South China Sea are a distinct possibility to avert internal chaos. Taiwan may reunite with the mainland for economic reasons.
India: Now in a uniquely historical role to dictate terms to the West. Not only does it handle vital software infrastructure for MNCs, its call centers are crucial to international commerce. No other nation can produce call centers in such colossal numbers within a very short time. A shutdown of both - even for a day - will lead to financial mayhem. The linguistic edge India enjoys in terms of geopolitical power is largely ignored in international relations texts. Its industry is more service-oriented vis a vis China, and therefore less vulnerable to oil shocks.
Japan: Has been experimenting with alternative power sources for decades, some of which are already operational. Its military capabilities are limited.
Europe: Another region with a long tradition of experimentation with alternative energy. In a better position than most to weather an oil crisis.
South Korea: In a similar situation to Japan, but without a long track record of developing alternative power sources. Historically, it has resisted Chinese hegemony and might align itself to the US, even with a belligerent North Korea factored out.
Russia: Through its enormous reserves of oil and gas, Russia may aggrandize its geopolitical leverage in Europe. In the short-term, before a multifarious energy infrastructure is in place, the EU may have to make concessions to Russia.
Venezuela, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, North Africa and the Middle East: Has oil but no military capability to counter external threats.
Africa and South America: International Realism will leave little breathing space for these regions by virtue of their internal weaknesses.”
More by activist and researcher, Matthew Maawak.
Zora Neale Hurston on false liberalism..
“Led astray be leftists, who do not, however, admit they are pro-Kremlin, great numbers of uninformed persons believe that the perfect interpretation of term “liberal” is a person who desires greater Government control and Federal handouts…”
Zora Neale Hurston, one of the greatest African-American writers, was an individualist and libertarian who wrote out against both imperialism and communism…
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