“We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis,” the official told the Reuters news agency by telephone, adding: “It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debt.” Al Jazeera, November 28, 2009
An unnamed Abu Dhabi official has said that the rich UAE [United Arab Republic] emirate will help its spendthrift neigbour Dubai on a case by case basis.
This gets pretty interesting for all the other countries out there with sovereign debt problems .. even though, as I blogged earlier, Dubai´s is not a sovereign debt problem. It´s a problem for Dubai World.
However, there seems to be a perception issue involved, which is causing credit default swaps for Irish banks to rise dramatically.
What´s going on?
This isn´t the first time the Dubai story has caused jitters in the market. Ten months ago, Dubai CDS´s rose to record levels on fears that neighboring and much richer Abu Dhabi wouldn¨t ride in to the rescue.
But that was Dubai CDS. Now it´s Irish CDS´s that are up.
Over at the Baseline Scenario, Simon Johnson has an explanation. He says the Irish tremors are caused by the perception that as Dubai goes, so go the other sovereign debt crises around the world:
1. If Dubai can effectively default or reschedule its debts without disrupting the global economy, then others can do the same.
2. If Abu Dhabi takes a tough line and doesn’t destabilize markets, others (e.g., the EU) will be tempted to do the same (i.e., for Ireland and Greece). “No more unconditional bailouts” is an appealing refrain in many capitals.
3. If the US supports some creditor losses for Dubai (e.g., because of its connections with Iran), this makes it easier to impose losses on creditors elsewhere (even perhaps where IMF programs are in place, such as Eastern Europe).
I´m not sure I follow this reasoning at all. Nor do I understand why Mr. Johnson seems to think this adds up to strengthening Ben Bernanke´s hand…..
Let´s see. Is Mr. Johnson saying that if picking and choosing whom to rescue is OK for an Arab sheikh, it should be good enough for Ben Bernanke?
Frankly, that sounds less like an explanation and more like advance PR for the Fed to engage in arbitrary treatment – bailouts – of banks and other companies..
[Update: And lo, it turns out that Ben Bernanke does need all the help he can get. He wants his power, dammit…see this oped at the Washington Post, hat tip to EconomicPolicyJournal]
A more convincing explanation of the Irish reaction than Johnson´s is Irish exposure via investment and employment to the Dubai economy.
“The Emirate was a Mecca for the Irish glitterati during the Celtic Tiger years, with many would-be investors taking a gamble. Ireland captain O’Driscoll bought an apartment in the e389million Tiara Residence in 2006 off the plans. However, the property may now be worth much less than the €500,000 he paid for it.
But thousands of Irish investors are facing the prospect of their Dubai prop-erties plunging in price. Price drops in Dubai have been severe. According to Knight Frank Global House Price Survey, prices dropped by 40%.
It’s all a long way from the glittering heights of the middle of the decade – and from the 1980s, before the ruling Al-Maktoum family decided to turn their dusty emirates into a leading city.
The Irish have shaped the landscape of Dubai like few other nationalities, with Irish builders, engineers and architects prominent in building up the city state.
But now, question marks hang over the fate of hundreds of Irish who escaped the slump at home for jobs with companies under Dubai’s control.”
More here.